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Red119
17392.6
478725.6
233872.9
Blue98
756027.0
369519.6
1043542.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11410540608014016018011998

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+19Teleop
+25Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave9
6Coral scored#0
28Coral points0
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +9
13Coral scored#18
48Coral points63
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
72Total teleop81
Reef
7L4#4
5L3#7
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#22
BargeRed +6
10Cage & park4
10Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points4
119Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.90.1
71.171.2
Auto24.8
Teleop40.7
End7.4
red by 30.4
42.51.0
41.740.8
Auto3.8
Teleop33.0
End5.7
Second
25.60.1
23.123.3
Auto5.7
Teleop13.9
End6.1
blue by 1.4
7560
#21
27.01.3
27.726.4
Auto5.4
Teleop20.2
End1.4
Third
1739
#30
2.60.1
4.34.4
Auto2.3
Teleop0.9
End-0.6
blue by 17.0
3695
#33
19.61.3
20.919.6
Auto2.7
Teleop16.4
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
27%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed