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Red105
359621.3
584749.2
741729.4
Blue109
442336.6
270424.6
623729.9
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions858750607080100110120130105109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+6Teleop
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
3Coral scored#4
16Coral points20
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +13
15Coral scored#14
55Coral points52
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
79Total teleop66
Reef
6L4#7
6L3#5
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
6Foul points6
105Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5847
#14
49.21.8
36.137.9
Auto11.3
Teleop36.9
End1.0
red by 12.7
36.62.5
29.131.6
Auto8.3
Teleop27.0
End1.4
Second
7417
#22
29.41.8
18.520.3
Auto4.7
Teleop23.6
End1.0
blue by 0.5
29.92.5
25.427.9
Auto4.5
Teleop19.4
End6.1
Third
3596
#27
21.31.8
22.224.0
Auto4.6
Teleop14.7
End2.0
blue by 3.3
2704
#29
24.62.5
20.823.3
Auto4.8
Teleop18.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsEarned