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Red85
409640.2
270428.4
229031.1
Blue161
414366.9
16760.7
544236.7
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11519105010015025030085161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+72
Endgame+76
Fouls+76
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave0
3Coral scored#7
16Coral points37
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +51
12Coral scored#22
43Coral points78
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#4
12Processor points24
12Net points16
24Algae points40
67Total teleop118
Reef
4L4#12
5L3#9
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +76
0Foul points0
85Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4096
#26
40.22.5
45.443.0
Auto12.3
Teleop27.3
End0.6
blue by 26.7
66.90.5
66.165.6
Auto14.6
Teleop46.3
End6.0
Second
2290
#15
31.12.5
39.136.7
Auto9.7
Teleop20.6
End0.8
blue by 29.6
167
#17
60.70.5
57.557.0
Auto20.7
Teleop36.9
End3.0
Third
2704
#10
28.42.5
32.329.8
Auto5.3
Teleop22.8
End0.3
blue by 8.3
36.70.5
38.438.0
Auto6.8
Teleop26.2
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed73%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed82%Barge oddsMissed