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Red149
1043543.1
998817.6
233880.9
Blue55
64821.4
162546.5
641918.7
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16810405015020025014955

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+112Teleop
+102Endgame
+94Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave6
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points10
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +91
18Coral scored#3
64Coral points11
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#0
24Processor points6
20Net points0
44Algae points6
108Total teleop17
Reef
8L4#2
8L3#1
3L2#1
5L1 · trough#1
33Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +94
0Foul points8
149Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2338
#13
80.90.6
82.983.5
Auto24.1
Teleop49.0
End7.9
red by 34.4
1625
#16
46.53.4
50.647.2
Auto9.2
Teleop28.3
End9.0
Second
43.10.6
42.442.9
Auto4.2
Teleop35.8
End3.1
red by 21.7
648
#19
21.43.4
24.120.7
Auto5.1
Teleop11.9
End4.5
Third
9988
#14
17.60.9
15.316.2
Auto3.2
Teleop14.5
End0.0
blue by 1.0
6419
#20
18.73.4
23.219.8
Auto5.1
Teleop12.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsMissed69%Barge oddsEarned