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Red157
11241.2
465569.7
409640.2
Blue142
998817.6
16760.7
544236.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18012250100150200250300157142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+13Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points30
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +16
26Coral scored#17
95Coral points61
3Processor algae#4
2Net algae#5
18Processor points24
8Net points20
26Algae points44
121Total teleop105
Reef
15L4#11
6L3#4
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#32
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
157Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.70.1
70.170.2
Auto19.2
Teleop42.2
End8.4
red by 9.0
167
#17
60.70.6
59.860.4
Auto20.7
Teleop36.9
End3.0
Second
112
#5
41.20.1
41.541.6
Auto1.0
Teleop35.9
End4.3
red by 4.5
36.70.6
35.836.4
Auto6.8
Teleop26.2
End3.7
Third
4096
#26
40.20.1
40.340.4
Auto12.3
Teleop27.3
End0.6
red by 22.6
9988
#14
17.61.0
16.117.1
Auto3.2
Teleop14.5
End0.0