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Red191
414366.9
306162.4
51257.4
Blue84
593442.4
229031.1
203912.5
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1538505010020025019184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
+91Teleop
+99Endgame
+107Fouls
AutonomousRed +12
0Leave9
8Coral scored#4
40Coral points19
40Total auto28
TeleoperatedRed +79
25Coral scored#11
89Coral points38
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
18Processor points6
24Net points8
42Algae points14
131Total teleop52
Reef
12L4#6
9L3#5
8L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
42Game pieces#18
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +107
8Foul points0
191Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.91.1
64.265.3
Auto14.6
Teleop46.3
End6.0
red by 24.5
42.40.2
43.643.4
Auto7.7
Teleop24.9
End9.9
Second
62.41.1
59.760.8
Auto17.1
Teleop41.2
End4.1
red by 31.2
2290
#15
31.10.2
32.432.1
Auto9.7
Teleop20.6
End0.8
Third
5125
#25
7.41.1
6.47.4
Auto1.0
Teleop5.3
End1.1
blue by 5.1
2039
#22
12.50.2
12.812.5
Auto3.5
Teleop7.5
End1.5