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Red142
204037.5
414376.2
173633.5
Blue134
409640.5
843016.9
248195.9
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16318604006008001,0001,200142134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+4
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave0
7Coral scored#6
37Coral points29
40Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +15
17Coral scored#20
62Coral points73
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
86Total teleop101
Reef
9L4#10
7L3#6
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#32
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
142Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.20.6
72.071.4
Auto18.9
Teleop50.5
End6.9
blue by 19.7
95.91.8
97.896.0
Auto25.6
Teleop61.8
End8.4
Second
2040
#23
37.50.6
44.644.0
Auto9.5
Teleop21.7
End6.3
blue by 3.0
4096
#12
40.51.8
40.238.4
Auto12.8
Teleop26.7
End1.0
Third
1736
#14
33.50.6
35.134.4
Auto9.0
Teleop23.5
End1.1
red by 16.6
8430
#22
16.91.8
22.420.7
Auto2.5
Teleop12.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsEarned66%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsMissed