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Red124
178128.8
319765.3
711711.2
Blue127
64820.4
409640.5
421344.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10194050150200124127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+1
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +13
0Leave9
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points31
27Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +12
17Coral scored#11
61Coral points39
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
6Processor points12
16Net points20
22Algae points32
83Total teleop71
Reef
7L4#8
8L3#5
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
124Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3197
#15
65.32.1
56.858.9
Auto13.8
Teleop45.1
End6.4
red by 21.2
4213
#13
44.12.5
35.638.1
Auto12.6
Teleop29.5
End2.0
Second
1781
#26
28.82.1
21.023.1
Auto8.9
Teleop19.4
End0.5
blue by 11.7
4096
#12
40.52.5
38.440.9
Auto12.8
Teleop26.7
End1.0
Third
7117
#34
11.22.1
11.513.6
Auto2.8
Teleop5.4
End3.0
blue by 9.2
648
#20
20.42.5
13.415.8
Auto3.8
Teleop12.2
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsMissed79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsEarned