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Red109
501040.8
874221.6
Blue47
164624.9
355910.5
719.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7560010020030040010947

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+36Teleop
+56Endgame
+62Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +33
15Coral scored#6
53Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
63Total teleop30
Reef
4L4#2
7L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#9
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +62
6Foul points0
109Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.82.5
38.340.7
Auto10.7
Teleop26.5
End3.7
red by 16.0
1646
#29
24.90.7
31.130.3
Auto6.9
Teleop17.1
End0.9
Second
8742
#24
21.62.5
18.420.9
Auto4.9
Teleop12.0
End4.6
red by 11.0
3559
#28
10.50.7
12.912.2
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End4.1
Third
3.82.5
9.111.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop2.7
End1.4
blue by 5.4
71
#27
9.20.7
14.113.4
Auto2.6
Teleop6.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed