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Red146
501047.2
4552.4
46160.3
Blue119
101832.8
102445.3
540250.0
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134128100120140160180146119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave6
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +11
13Coral scored#20
45Coral points72
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#1
12Processor points12
20Net points4
32Algae points16
77Total teleop88
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#6
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
6Foul points6
146Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
461
#5
60.30.8
50.251.1
Auto17.5
Teleop35.4
End7.4
red by 10.3
5402
#12
50.00.7
51.550.8
Auto10.5
Teleop33.0
End6.5
Second
45
#7
52.40.8
42.143.0
Auto8.5
Teleop36.5
End7.5
red by 7.1
1024
#18
45.30.7
39.038.3
Auto8.1
Teleop30.6
End6.6
Third
5010
#11
47.20.8
35.035.8
Auto10.8
Teleop32.5
End4.0
red by 14.4
1018
#36
32.80.7
33.032.3
Auto3.2
Teleop23.4
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsEarned28%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned