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Red199
427278.5
745794.3
1033217.5
Blue159
101832.8
150174.8
695635.1
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184143100200250300199159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+52Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave3
12Coral scored#8
61Coral points40
61Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +34
24Coral scored#17
86Coral points60
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
18Processor points18
20Net points12
38Algae points30
124Total teleop90
Reef
13L4#11
10L3#7
9L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
199Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.32.1
80.082.1
Auto23.2
Teleop61.6
End9.5
red by 19.6
1501
#19
74.81.4
70.071.3
Auto19.4
Teleop46.8
End8.6
Second
78.52.1
68.971.0
Auto18.8
Teleop49.0
End10.8
red by 43.4
6956
#24
35.11.4
34.135.5
Auto7.3
Teleop25.1
End2.8
Third
17.52.1
19.121.1
Auto5.0
Teleop10.6
End1.9
blue by 15.3
1018
#36
32.81.4
34.636.0
Auto3.2
Teleop23.4
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
58%Coral oddsEarned38%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned