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Red99
29220.7
174153.7
949121.5
Blue64
217120.6
498211.8
810324.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107360501502009964

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+35Teleop
+35Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave6
4Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
27Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +14
11Coral scored#9
40Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
6Processor points6
20Net points12
26Algae points18
66Total teleop52
Reef
4L4#3
6L3#1
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points0
99Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.70.5
44.244.7
Auto14.8
Teleop35.5
End3.3
red by 29.5
8103
#23
24.21.3
14.816.1
Auto3.5
Teleop17.1
End3.6
Second
9491
#14
21.50.5
20.320.8
Auto5.6
Teleop13.2
End2.7
red by 0.9
2171
#26
20.61.3
14.415.7
Auto5.1
Teleop13.6
End1.8
Third
292
#19
20.70.5
23.724.2
Auto4.6
Teleop12.9
End3.2
red by 8.9
4982
#32
11.82.2
9.812.0
Auto1.8
Teleop8.1
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed