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Red40
518817.9
649816.6
843115.5
Blue44
810324.2
811617.0
155515.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions564602040801004044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+18Teleop
+20Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +15
5Coral scored#2
17Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
27Total teleop12
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points24
40Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5188
#33
17.91.2
20.719.5
Auto3.2
Teleop13.3
End1.3
blue by 6.3
8103
#23
24.21.6
16.114.5
Auto3.5
Teleop17.1
End3.6
Second
6498
#39
16.61.2
14.012.9
Auto4.5
Teleop9.5
End2.6
blue by 0.4
8116
#20
17.02.6
15.813.2
Auto4.3
Teleop9.4
End3.3
Third
8431
#37
15.50.7
15.815.1
Auto3.7
Teleop10.9
End0.9
blue by 0.2
1555
#28
15.61.6
11.910.3
Auto3.2
Teleop9.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
11%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsEarned