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Red110
427249.4
719819.5
945314.4
Blue41
355910.4
448528.8
649816.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7645010015011041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+61Teleop
+69Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
3Leave0
5Coral scored#2
26Coral points9
29Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +41
14Coral scored#5
49Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
67Total teleop26
Reef
8L4#2
3L3#2
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#9
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
0Foul points0
110Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.44.2
40.144.3
Auto12.5
Teleop30.9
End6.0
red by 20.6
4485
#21
28.80.5
22.121.6
Auto5.4
Teleop22.7
End0.7
Second
7198
#29
19.54.2
16.921.1
Auto2.2
Teleop12.8
End4.5
red by 2.9
6498
#39
16.60.5
13.713.2
Auto4.5
Teleop9.5
End2.6
Third
9453
#31
14.42.9
9.312.2
Auto4.2
Teleop8.8
End1.4
red by 4.0
3559
#35
10.40.5
10.29.7
Auto2.8
Teleop4.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed