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Red158
810324.2
86853.3
150160.5
Blue127
349447.6
1002133.6
217120.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions151111100200158127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
+25Teleop
+25Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +12
3Leave6
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points22
40Total auto28
TeleoperatedRed +13
17Coral scored#16
62Coral points59
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#2
12Processor points18
24Net points8
36Algae points26
98Total teleop85
Reef
10L4#7
5L3#6
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +31
6Foul points0
158Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.50.5
58.358.7
Auto15.1
Teleop36.9
End8.5
red by 12.9
47.60.5
48.148.6
Auto7.7
Teleop33.0
End6.8
Second
868
#5
53.30.5
51.151.5
Auto10.9
Teleop35.8
End6.6
red by 19.7
33.60.5
34.234.7
Auto6.8
Teleop25.8
End0.9
Third
8103
#23
24.20.5
22.022.5
Auto3.5
Teleop17.1
End3.6
red by 3.6
2171
#26
20.60.5
21.121.6
Auto5.1
Teleop13.6
End1.8