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Red131
427264.9
46147.7
386521.3
Blue116
747718.6
492643.5
1002915.3
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14563050100200131116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+5Teleop
+3Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
5Coral scored#4
27Coral points20
30Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +1
11Coral scored#13
39Coral points46
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
75Total teleop74
Reef
8L4#7
4L3#5
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
12Foul points0
131Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.90.4
60.860.4
Auto17.6
Teleop38.7
End8.5
red by 21.3
43.53.1
41.644.7
Auto13.0
Teleop25.2
End5.4
Second
461
#7
47.70.4
42.642.2
Auto11.0
Teleop31.3
End5.4
red by 29.1
7477
#25
18.63.1
14.417.5
Auto3.4
Teleop13.1
End2.0
Third
3865
#27
21.30.4
19.418.9
Auto3.7
Teleop14.3
End3.4
red by 6.0
15.33.1
9.913.0
Auto3.9
Teleop9.5
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned