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Red166
174155.7
1002915.3
46147.7
Blue107
448540.4
672134.8
695633.2
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115118100110130140150160166107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+43Teleop
+53Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave0
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points9
29Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
22Coral scored#19
79Coral points70
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
18Processor points12
20Net points12
38Algae points24
117Total teleop94
Reef
10L4#8
8L3#6
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
6Foul points0
166Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1741
#10
55.72.3
53.255.5
Auto15.5
Teleop37.3
End2.9
red by 15.3
4485
#13
40.41.0
37.236.1
Auto5.8
Teleop32.8
End1.7
Second
461
#7
47.72.3
42.244.5
Auto11.0
Teleop31.3
End5.4
red by 12.9
6721
#16
34.81.0
34.633.6
Auto5.4
Teleop26.6
End2.8
Third
15.32.3
13.015.3
Auto3.9
Teleop9.5
End1.8
blue by 17.9
6956
#12
33.21.0
34.133.1
Auto4.4
Teleop25.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed