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Red63
386517.6
1033218.1
4521.8
Blue52
94539.0
219719.1
95549.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5736020801001206352

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+17Teleop
+17Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +14
9Coral scored#6
33Coral points23
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
47Total teleop33
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#3
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points6
63Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45
#8
21.81.0
21.322.3
Auto4.0
Teleop14.6
End3.1
red by 2.7
2197
#15
19.11.1
18.819.8
Auto3.3
Teleop12.9
End2.8
Second
18.11.0
15.616.7
Auto6.5
Teleop9.2
End2.5
red by 8.4
9554
#31
9.81.1
8.09.1
Auto3.5
Teleop5.3
End0.9
Third
17.61.0
15.416.4
Auto2.4
Teleop13.1
End2.1
red by 8.6
9453
#30
9.01.1
8.29.3
Auto2.9
Teleop5.8
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed