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Red255
176887.8
213781.2
349469.4
Blue151
492652.5
1002143.2
174159.0
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions242165100150200300350255151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+72Teleop
+104Endgame
+104Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
9Leave6
9Coral scored#5
46Coral points24
55Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +47
22Coral scored#18
80Coral points65
6Processor algae#4
12Net algae#7
36Processor points24
48Net points28
84Algae points52
164Total teleop117
Reef
11L4#7
9L3#5
5L2#5
6L1 · trough#6
49Game pieces#34
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +104
0Foul points0
255Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1768
#11
87.81.7
80.982.6
Auto21.8
Teleop54.9
End11.1
red by 28.8
1741
#56
59.01.4
60.859.3
Auto17.7
Teleop38.9
End2.5
Second
2137
#36
81.21.7
76.177.8
Auto16.1
Teleop56.0
End9.1
red by 28.7
4926
#59
52.51.4
51.349.9
Auto15.1
Teleop30.9
End6.4
Third
3494
#48
69.41.7
60.862.5
Auto13.5
Teleop46.9
End9.0
red by 26.2
43.21.4
49.447.9
Auto6.5
Teleop33.1
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsEarned59%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed