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Red285
694100.7
276781.2
353878.2
Blue162
102446.4
568778.8
492652.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions291185100150200250350400285162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+93Teleop
+123Endgame
+123Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave6
11Coral scored#8
55Coral points41
58Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +82
32Coral scored#16
115Coral points59
4Processor algae#5
13Net algae#5
24Processor points30
52Net points20
76Algae points50
191Total teleop109
Reef
20L4#7
6L3#6
11L2#7
6L1 · trough#4
60Game pieces#34
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +123
0Foul points0
285Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
694
#4
100.70.7
101.1101.8
Auto23.9
Teleop64.3
End12.5
red by 21.9
5687
#41
78.82.2
78.776.5
Auto23.3
Teleop48.4
End7.1
Second
2767
#25
81.20.7
80.481.2
Auto18.1
Teleop50.8
End12.4
red by 28.8
4926
#59
52.52.2
55.252.9
Auto15.1
Teleop30.9
End6.4
Third
3538
#27
78.20.7
81.482.1
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End5.7
red by 31.9
1024
#45
46.42.2
50.147.9
Auto8.3
Teleop32.3
End5.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
100%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
96%Coral oddsEarned75%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsMissed