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Red218
745797.5
198771.0
249172.3
Blue234
394079.0
42293.3
44957.5
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions257243180200220280300218234

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave9
10Coral scored#8
48Coral points38
57Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +16
29Coral scored#25
103Coral points89
2Processor algae#5
5Net algae#8
12Processor points30
20Net points32
32Algae points62
135Total teleop151
Reef
12L4#14
13L3#12
8L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
218Total score234

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7457
#19
97.51.6
98.496.8
Auto24.3
Teleop61.7
End11.6
red by 4.2
422
#9
93.30.3
91.491.7
Auto21.8
Teleop59.9
End11.6
Second
2491
#38
72.31.6
71.569.9
Auto15.4
Teleop47.4
End9.4
blue by 6.7
3940
#42
79.00.3
77.177.4
Auto15.8
Teleop53.8
End9.5
Third
1987
#44
71.01.6
72.370.7
Auto16.6
Teleop46.1
End8.3
red by 13.5
449
#58
57.50.3
61.461.6
Auto8.0
Teleop40.2
End9.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
87%Coral oddsMissed94%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned