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Red195
44957.5
353878.2
459069.6
Blue236
464655.8
376775.2
414569.0
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222226200240260195236

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+31
Endgame+41
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +18
0Leave6
9Coral scored#11
43Coral points55
43Total auto61
TeleoperatedBlue +13
31Coral scored#29
110Coral points103
1Processor algae#3
5Net algae#7
6Processor points18
20Net points28
26Algae points46
136Total teleop149
Reef
15L4#14
14L3#12
6L2#8
5L1 · trough#6
46Game pieces#50
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
0Foul points0
195Total score236

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#27
78.22.2
76.874.6
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End5.7
red by 3.1
75.21.0
72.073.0
Auto18.5
Teleop47.4
End9.3
Second
4590
#12
69.62.2
64.462.2
Auto17.6
Teleop43.4
End8.7
red by 0.6
4145
#34
69.01.0
70.771.7
Auto13.8
Teleop46.7
End8.5
Third
449
#58
57.52.2
75.473.2
Auto8.0
Teleop40.2
End9.2
red by 1.7
4646
#54
55.81.0
67.568.5
Auto11.9
Teleop40.2
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
81%Coral oddsMissed96%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned