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Red250
276781.2
745797.5
213781.2
Blue242
170691.0
327685.5
18081.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions273270220240260280300250242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+28
+2Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
9Coral scored#9
44Coral points44
44Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +25
29Coral scored#30
106Coral points109
4Processor algae#5
6Net algae#10
24Processor points30
24Net points40
48Algae points70
154Total teleop179
Reef
9L4#15
14L3#12
8L2#8
7L1 · trough#4
48Game pieces#54
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +8
16Foul points10
250Total score242

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7457
#19
97.50.6
98.197.5
Auto24.3
Teleop61.7
End11.6
red by 6.5
1706
#30
91.00.6
91.791.0
Auto19.4
Teleop60.3
End11.3
Second
2767
#25
81.20.6
81.881.2
Auto18.1
Teleop50.8
End12.4
blue by 4.3
85.50.6
86.285.5
Auto8.7
Teleop65.7
End11.1
Third
2137
#36
81.20.6
81.881.2
Auto16.1
Teleop56.0
End9.1
blue by 0.7
180
#18
81.80.6
82.581.8
Auto20.1
Teleop52.1
End9.6