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Red243
565428.4
1690101.5
599084.8
Blue195
595164.9
333971.0
432051.8
88%Model gave it12%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions231193140160180220240260280300243195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+46Teleop
+36Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave9
14Coral scored#9
69Coral points45
72Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +28
30Coral scored#21
107Coral points75
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
18Processor points18
20Net points24
38Algae points42
145Total teleop117
Reef
12L4#9
14L3#8
9L2#10
9L1 · trough#3
52Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +48
12Foul points0
243Total score195

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
101.50.2
101.3101.5
Auto29.1
Teleop62.8
End9.6
red by 30.5
71.00.0
71.071.0
Auto18.8
Teleop46.2
End6.0
Second
84.80.2
84.684.8
Auto20.8
Teleop61.3
End2.7
red by 19.9
64.90.0
64.964.9
Auto18.5
Teleop36.6
End9.8
Third
5654
#40
28.40.2
28.228.4
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End6.2
blue by 23.4
4320
#29
51.80.0
51.951.8
Auto12.0
Teleop35.5
End4.4