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Red85
563552.5
157630.4
441630.8
Blue214
599084.8
610426.8
263073.2
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions991865015020025030085214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+117
Endgame+129
Fouls+129
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave3
6Coral scored#10
30Coral points48
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +96
10Coral scored#29
37Coral points103
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#8
6Processor points12
8Net points32
14Algae points44
51Total teleop147
Reef
7L4#17
3L3#9
2L2#9
4L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#49
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +129
2Foul points2
85Total score214

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.51.7
46.444.7
Auto12.5
Teleop31.5
End8.4
blue by 32.3
84.82.2
74.076.2
Auto20.8
Teleop61.3
End2.7
Second
4416
#31
30.81.7
23.822.1
Auto9.4
Teleop17.6
End3.8
blue by 42.5
2630
#22
73.22.2
66.368.5
Auto21.9
Teleop42.0
End9.3
Third
1576
#38
30.41.7
29.227.5
Auto8.4
Teleop20.6
End1.5
red by 3.6
6104
#41
26.82.2
27.229.4
Auto3.7
Teleop20.4
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed62%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed83%Barge oddsEarned