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Red199
598757.0
321130.6
599084.8
Blue101
673827.5
458643.4
610426.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1859550150200250199101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+80Teleop
+92Endgame
+98Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave0
8Coral scored#5
38Coral points24
44Total auto24
TeleoperatedRed +60
23Coral scored#14
83Coral points51
4Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
24Processor points12
28Net points12
52Algae points24
135Total teleop75
Reef
16L4#6
5L3#7
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
42Game pieces#24
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +98
6Foul points0
199Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.81.0
82.583.5
Auto20.8
Teleop61.3
End2.7
red by 41.4
4586
#23
43.40.6
42.441.8
Auto9.7
Teleop32.4
End1.4
Second
57.01.0
52.353.3
Auto11.0
Teleop36.7
End9.2
red by 29.4
6738
#24
27.50.6
27.226.6
Auto12.5
Teleop13.4
End1.6
Third
3211
#16
30.61.0
28.829.8
Auto8.2
Teleop20.9
End1.6
red by 3.8
6104
#41
26.80.6
28.628.0
Auto3.7
Teleop20.4
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed