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Red164
459064.4
157456.7
157630.4
Blue149
555441.9
432051.8
974030.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170128100150200250164149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
3Leave6
11Coral scored#6
55Coral points30
58Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +19
16Coral scored#17
58Coral points61
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
6Processor points18
16Net points20
22Algae points38
80Total teleop99
Reef
9L4#10
8L3#6
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#31
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
12Foul points0
164Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.40.2
63.263.4
Auto17.1
Teleop40.6
End6.7
red by 12.5
4320
#29
51.82.1
49.952.0
Auto12.0
Teleop35.5
End4.4
Second
1574
#30
56.70.2
55.555.7
Auto19.8
Teleop31.2
End5.6
red by 14.8
5554
#21
41.92.1
39.741.8
Auto12.1
Teleop26.2
End3.6
Third
1576
#38
30.40.2
30.130.3
Auto8.4
Teleop20.6
End1.5
blue by 0.5
9740
#44
30.92.1
28.130.2
Auto7.9
Teleop21.9
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
60%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsEarned