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Red223
223079.3
263073.2
711242.7
Blue199
598757.0
157753.5
194268.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204185100150250300223199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+26Teleop
+36Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
3Leave6
12Coral scored#5
62Coral points24
65Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +9
22Coral scored#30
80Coral points107
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
18Processor points12
28Net points16
46Algae points28
126Total teleop135
Reef
13L4#16
9L3#10
7L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#41
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +24
6Foul points18
223Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.30.5
79.379.8
Auto19.1
Teleop49.0
End11.1
red by 10.9
1942
#13
68.40.1
68.368.4
Auto17.7
Teleop44.1
End6.6
Second
2630
#22
73.20.5
73.373.8
Auto21.9
Teleop42.0
End9.3
red by 16.3
57.00.1
56.957.0
Auto11.0
Teleop36.7
End9.2
Third
7112
#34
42.70.5
42.843.3
Auto13.2
Teleop21.9
End7.6
blue by 10.8
1577
#15
53.50.1
53.553.5
Auto11.4
Teleop36.0
End6.1