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Red258
565428.4
1690101.5
599084.8
Blue179
595164.9
333971.0
432051.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions227196140160180220240260280258179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+71Teleop
+71Endgame
+79Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
9Coral scored#8
44Coral points41
47Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +68
38Coral scored#16
135Coral points57
3Processor algae#4
5Net algae#6
18Processor points24
20Net points24
38Algae points48
173Total teleop105
Reef
14L4#9
17L3#7
8L2#4
8L1 · trough#4
55Game pieces#34
Bargelevel
24Cage & park24
24Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +79
14Foul points6
258Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
101.50.6
100.6101.3
Auto29.1
Teleop62.8
End9.6
red by 30.5
71.00.5
72.071.5
Auto18.8
Teleop46.2
End6.0
Second
84.80.6
84.084.6
Auto20.8
Teleop61.3
End2.7
red by 19.9
64.90.5
65.965.4
Auto18.5
Teleop36.6
End9.8
Third
5654
#40
28.40.6
27.628.2
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End6.2
blue by 23.4
4320
#29
51.80.5
52.852.4
Auto12.0
Teleop35.5
End4.4