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Red210
223079.3
263073.2
711242.7
Blue154
474461.1
209653.2
157456.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204170100150250210154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+48Teleop
+46Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave3
13Coral scored#7
65Coral points34
65Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +20
23Coral scored#19
83Coral points67
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
18Processor points6
8Net points16
26Algae points22
109Total teleop89
Reef
14L4#11
6L3#7
9L2#5
7L1 · trough#3
41Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +56
12Foul points2
210Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.30.1
79.379.3
Auto19.1
Teleop49.0
End11.1
red by 18.1
4744
#10
61.10.5
61.661.1
Auto15.7
Teleop40.8
End4.6
Second
2630
#22
73.20.1
73.273.3
Auto21.9
Teleop42.0
End9.3
red by 16.5
1574
#30
56.70.5
57.256.7
Auto19.8
Teleop31.2
End5.6
Third
7112
#34
42.70.1
42.742.8
Auto13.2
Teleop21.9
End7.6
blue by 10.5
2096
#19
53.20.5
53.653.2
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End3.6