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Red229
565428.4
1690101.5
599084.8
Blue162
474461.1
209653.2
157456.7
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions229171100150200250300229162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+69Teleop
+67Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
3Leave9
7Coral scored#9
34Coral points45
37Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +86
31Coral scored#14
112Coral points52
4Processor algae#3
8Net algae#3
24Processor points18
32Net points12
56Algae points30
168Total teleop82
Reef
15L4#8
7L3#6
10L2#4
6L1 · trough#5
50Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +67
0Foul points0
229Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
101.50.4
100.1100.5
Auto29.1
Teleop62.8
End9.6
red by 40.3
4744
#10
61.10.2
61.260.9
Auto15.7
Teleop40.8
End4.6
Second
84.80.4
83.583.9
Auto20.8
Teleop61.3
End2.7
red by 28.1
1574
#30
56.70.2
56.756.5
Auto19.8
Teleop31.2
End5.6
Third
5654
#40
28.40.4
27.127.5
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End6.2
blue by 24.7
2096
#19
53.20.2
53.253.0
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End3.6