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Red111
565421.1
561465.4
Blue31
822329.5
592811.4
194312.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8553020406010012014016011131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+70Teleop
+72Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +49
15Coral scored#4
55Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
69Total teleop20
Reef
8L4#2
4L3#2
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
8Foul points0
111Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.43.2
34.037.2
Auto16.8
Teleop38.6
End9.9
red by 35.9
29.52.1
17.315.2
Auto6.8
Teleop18.3
End4.5
Second
5654
#18
21.13.2
25.328.5
Auto3.2
Teleop15.2
End2.8
red by 8.7
1943
#24
12.42.1
15.813.7
Auto1.8
Teleop10.8
End-0.1
Third
9.73.2
14.717.9
Auto2.4
Teleop8.4
End-1.0
blue by 1.6
5928
#26
11.42.1
16.814.7
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed