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Red139
263050.5
717716.9
563539.4
Blue93
817529.0
306538.2
194243.3
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9592608010012014013993

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+32Teleop
+44Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave0
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points13
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +15
17Coral scored#16
61Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
12Processor points6
20Net points16
32Algae points22
93Total teleop78
Reef
9L4#8
4L3#4
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#24
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
2Foul points0
139Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.55.8
42.047.8
Auto15.6
Teleop27.6
End7.3
red by 7.1
43.30.4
24.825.3
Auto10.9
Teleop30.9
End1.6
Second
39.45.8
31.036.8
Auto6.9
Teleop27.1
End5.4
red by 1.2
3065
#16
38.20.4
31.932.3
Auto6.0
Teleop31.1
End1.1
Third
7177
#25
16.95.8
8.614.4
Auto1.3
Teleop14.7
End0.9
blue by 12.1
8175
#15
29.00.4
26.426.9
Auto4.0
Teleop22.5
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed