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Red55
209641.7
383511.4
308325.0
Blue42
930412.0
431915.5
822329.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions844901001505542

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +26
11Coral scored#5
39Coral points17
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
47Total teleop21
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#1
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points12
55Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2096
#13
41.72.1
35.733.6
Auto7.8
Teleop32.0
End1.9
red by 12.2
29.52.1
13.711.6
Auto6.8
Teleop18.3
End4.5
Second
3083
#11
25.02.1
20.718.5
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
red by 9.5
4319
#21
15.52.1
16.614.5
Auto4.5
Teleop9.4
End1.6
Third
3835
#23
11.42.1
17.915.8
Auto3.3
Teleop7.3
End0.8
blue by 0.6
9304
#19
12.02.1
18.416.3
Auto3.4
Teleop7.6
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed