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Red152
441618.2
194243.3
169072.8
Blue75
308325.0
563539.4
610420.1
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106865015015275

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+42Auto
+69Teleop
+71Endgame
+77Fouls
AutonomousRed +42
0Leave6
10Coral scored#0
48Coral points0
48Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +27
21Coral scored#11
74Coral points39
2Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
12Processor points12
4Net points12
16Algae points24
90Total teleop63
Reef
11L4#4
12L3#3
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#16
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +77
8Foul points2
152Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.85.5
58.263.7
Auto21.2
Teleop46.1
End5.5
red by 33.4
39.40.6
36.836.2
Auto6.9
Teleop27.1
End5.4
Second
43.35.5
25.330.7
Auto10.9
Teleop30.9
End1.6
red by 18.3
3083
#11
25.00.6
18.517.9
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
Third
4416
#10
18.25.5
11.316.7
Auto3.7
Teleop10.8
End3.6
blue by 1.9
6104
#27
20.10.6
23.422.8
Auto2.3
Teleop16.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsMissed