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Red85
817529.0
563539.4
466116.7
Blue53
673825.6
93036.7
433824.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions905701001508553

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+16Teleop
+30Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +10
10Coral scored#8
36Coral points28
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
12Processor points6
4Net points8
16Algae points14
52Total teleop42
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#2
4L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#11
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
2Foul points0
85Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.40.3
36.236.5
Auto6.9
Teleop27.1
End5.4
red by 13.8
6738
#12
25.60.2
27.427.2
Auto5.5
Teleop19.2
End0.9
Second
8175
#15
29.00.3
27.227.5
Auto4.0
Teleop22.5
End2.5
red by 4.3
4338
#14
24.70.2
25.325.1
Auto4.2
Teleop19.1
End1.3
Third
16.70.3
16.817.1
Auto3.3
Teleop11.2
End2.2
red by 10.0
9303
#29
6.70.2
2.22.0
Auto2.5
Teleop4.2
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed