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Red112
595155.0
673825.6
817529.0
Blue39
717716.9
308325.0
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9648015020025011239

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+45Teleop
+57Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +38
15Coral scored#5
54Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
64Total teleop26
Reef
8L4#3
3L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
16Foul points0
112Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.01.3
32.633.9
Auto14.1
Teleop30.6
End10.3
red by 30.0
3083
#11
25.01.4
19.818.4
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
Second
8175
#15
29.01.3
21.122.4
Auto4.0
Teleop22.5
End2.5
red by 12.1
7177
#25
16.91.4
12.711.3
Auto1.3
Teleop14.7
End0.9
Third
6738
#12
25.61.3
28.029.3
Auto5.5
Teleop19.2
End0.9
red by 15.9
9.71.4
16.114.7
Auto2.4
Teleop8.4
End-1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed