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Red148
599060.8
193732.0
333950.2
Blue161
157628.3
223157.0
561469.7
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143167050100200250300350400148161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
6Coral scored#9
31Coral points45
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +3
23Coral scored#23
81Coral points84
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
18Processor points12
8Net points8
26Algae points20
107Total teleop104
Reef
11L4#13
9L3#11
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
148Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.80.2
60.160.3
Auto17.7
Teleop39.9
End3.2
blue by 8.9
69.70.1
70.270.3
Auto21.2
Teleop39.6
End9.0
Second
50.20.2
49.649.8
Auto14.7
Teleop34.4
End1.1
blue by 6.8
57.00.1
57.557.6
Auto16.7
Teleop33.6
End6.7
Third
1937
#24
32.00.2
31.431.6
Auto4.1
Teleop25.5
End2.5
red by 3.7
1576
#14
28.30.1
28.828.9
Auto4.2
Teleop22.2
End1.9