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Red176
599060.8
193732.0
333950.2
Blue154
157628.3
223157.0
561469.7
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143167050100200250300350400176154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+24Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
8Coral scored#8
38Coral points38
44Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +27
22Coral scored#21
80Coral points77
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
18Processor points6
20Net points8
38Algae points14
118Total teleop91
Reef
13L4#13
8L3#9
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
176Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.80.8
60.361.2
Auto17.7
Teleop39.9
End3.2
blue by 8.9
69.70.1
70.370.2
Auto21.2
Teleop39.6
End9.0
Second
50.20.8
49.850.6
Auto14.7
Teleop34.4
End1.1
blue by 6.8
57.00.1
57.657.5
Auto16.7
Teleop33.6
End6.7
Third
1937
#24
32.00.8
31.632.3
Auto4.1
Teleop25.5
End2.5
red by 3.7
1576
#14
28.30.1
28.928.8
Auto4.2
Teleop22.2
End1.9