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Red74
221213.0
1013917.0
157445.5
Blue37
331623.6
616818.4
973918.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions89610501001502007437

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+21Teleop
+31Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points12
26Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +7
5Coral scored#4
18Coral points15
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
28Total teleop21
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points0
74Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.51.0
46.545.5
Auto15.1
Teleop26.0
End4.4
red by 21.9
3316
#23
23.61.9
22.220.4
Auto5.4
Teleop16.6
End1.7
Second
17.01.1
19.318.2
Auto5.6
Teleop8.5
End2.9
blue by 1.9
9739
#20
18.81.9
19.017.2
Auto4.8
Teleop13.4
End0.6
Third
2212
#13
13.01.0
14.313.3
Auto4.2
Teleop6.3
End2.5
blue by 5.4
6168
#28
18.42.0
18.516.5
Auto5.0
Teleop13.0
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned6%Barge oddsMissed