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Red121
598742.5
432029.0
474431.3
Blue120
555424.9
307536.7
338823.7
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1068750150200121120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+5Teleop
+3Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
3Leave6
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
23Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +4
16Coral scored#13
56Coral points48
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
18Processor points18
20Net points24
38Algae points42
94Total teleop90
Reef
7L4#8
6L3#4
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points2
121Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5987
#12
42.50.4
41.341.7
Auto6.9
Teleop31.5
End4.1
red by 5.8
3075
#11
36.70.7
36.036.7
Auto3.9
Teleop28.3
End4.4
Second
31.30.4
30.130.6
Auto5.8
Teleop23.2
End2.4
red by 6.5
5554
#25
24.90.7
24.224.9
Auto6.4
Teleop18.0
End0.5
Third
4320
#16
29.00.4
27.828.3
Auto4.7
Teleop21.4
End2.9
red by 5.4
23.70.7
23.023.7
Auto6.1
Teleop15.2
End2.3