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Red239
169095.9
513523.7
599069.9
Blue122
331627.9
157449.2
474446.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions205120100150250300239122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+89Teleop
+105Endgame
+117Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
10Coral scored#6
48Coral points31
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +75
35Coral scored#13
126Coral points47
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
154Total teleop79
Reef
15L4#7
8L3#7
14L2#3
8L1 · trough#2
51Game pieces#26
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +117
18Foul points6
239Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95.90.8
94.595.3
Auto26.4
Teleop61.7
End7.8
red by 46.6
49.20.1
49.048.8
Auto16.0
Teleop30.0
End3.2
Second
69.90.8
68.669.4
Auto17.5
Teleop49.7
End2.7
red by 23.8
46.20.1
45.945.8
Auto13.2
Teleop31.6
End1.4
Third
5135
#25
23.70.8
22.423.2
Auto4.0
Teleop17.3
End2.4
blue by 4.2
3316
#22
27.90.1
27.627.5
Auto5.6
Teleop20.9
End1.4