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Red212
169095.9
513523.7
599069.9
Blue146
331627.9
157449.2
474446.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20811850100150250300212146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+60Teleop
+72Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +39
33Coral scored#26
119Coral points94
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
161Total teleop122
Reef
17L4#12
8L3#8
7L2#5
7L1 · trough#4
48Game pieces#35
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +66
0Foul points6
212Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95.90.5
95.395.9
Auto26.4
Teleop61.7
End7.8
red by 46.6
49.20.4
48.849.2
Auto16.0
Teleop30.0
End3.2
Second
69.90.5
69.469.9
Auto17.5
Teleop49.7
End2.7
red by 23.8
46.20.4
45.846.2
Auto13.2
Teleop31.6
End1.4
Third
5135
#25
23.70.5
23.223.7
Auto4.0
Teleop17.3
End2.4
blue by 4.2
3316
#22
27.90.4
27.527.9
Auto5.6
Teleop20.9
End1.4