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Red158
333958.3
157627.8
784533.9
Blue151
321125.5
717712.5
169095.9
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12113780100160180200158151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+3
+17Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points21
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +4
20Coral scored#18
73Coral points63
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
12Processor points18
20Net points20
32Algae points38
105Total teleop101
Reef
10L4#6
6L3#8
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#30
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
4Foul points14
158Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.32.1
51.853.8
Auto14.8
Teleop37.2
End6.4
blue by 37.5
95.90.2
81.781.8
Auto26.4
Teleop61.7
End7.8
Second
7845
#13
33.92.1
28.230.3
Auto6.1
Teleop20.9
End6.9
red by 8.3
3211
#23
25.50.2
26.726.8
Auto4.0
Teleop19.2
End2.3
Third
1576
#12
27.82.1
31.433.5
Auto5.1
Teleop20.5
End2.2
red by 15.2
7177
#28
12.50.2
15.115.2
Auto1.0
Teleop9.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsMissed49%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsMissed