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Red147
599069.9
306542.1
529126.1
Blue179
267931.0
308329.7
333958.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153124100200147179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+12
Endgame+20
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave0
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points29
23Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +6
22Coral scored#24
78Coral points86
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
12Processor points18
28Net points20
40Algae points38
118Total teleop124
Reef
8L4#9
9L3#9
6L2#7
3L1 · trough#5
35Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points12
147Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.90.6
66.867.4
Auto17.5
Teleop49.7
End2.7
red by 11.6
58.33.3
57.160.4
Auto14.8
Teleop37.2
End6.4
Second
3065
#14
42.10.6
41.041.6
Auto5.5
Teleop35.4
End1.3
red by 11.2
2679
#15
31.03.3
28.331.6
Auto8.1
Teleop20.8
End2.1
Third
5291
#29
26.10.6
25.526.1
Auto4.1
Teleop18.8
End3.3
blue by 3.6
3083
#18
29.73.3
25.628.9
Auto2.2
Teleop27.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsEarned