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Red77
703952.6
822335.1
158010.1
Blue78
431915.1
193735.4
458631.9
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104870501502007778

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+9Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave6
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +12
9Coral scored#11
31Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
41Total teleop53
Reef
4L4#4
4L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
77Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.61.3
49.548.3
Auto18.0
Teleop26.4
End8.3
red by 17.2
35.40.3
36.636.3
Auto6.8
Teleop22.7
End5.8
Second
8223
#19
35.11.3
38.737.4
Auto10.5
Teleop19.8
End4.8
red by 3.2
4586
#12
31.90.3
27.327.1
Auto7.5
Teleop22.1
End2.3
Third
1580
#33
10.11.3
7.66.3
Auto5.2
Teleop4.6
End0.3
blue by 5.0
4319
#24
15.10.3
18.017.7
Auto4.0
Teleop8.1
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsEarned