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Red178
223176.5
466115.5
711236.4
Blue157
195419.2
555435.0
703952.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12910950150200178157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+1
+19Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave0
8Coral scored#7
38Coral points37
41Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +5
19Coral scored#22
67Coral points80
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
24Processor points12
20Net points24
44Algae points36
111Total teleop116
Reef
8L4#12
10L3#7
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#37
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
2Foul points0
178Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.53.3
65.969.2
Auto19.9
Teleop48.0
End8.6
red by 23.9
52.62.9
49.152.0
Auto18.0
Teleop26.4
End8.3
Second
36.43.3
31.534.8
Auto10.9
Teleop18.2
End7.4
red by 1.5
5554
#14
35.02.9
33.536.3
Auto10.3
Teleop23.4
End1.2
Third
4661
#26
15.53.3
17.921.2
Auto4.1
Teleop10.4
End1.0
blue by 3.7
1954
#32
19.22.9
20.323.2
Auto6.4
Teleop13.3
End-0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsMissed87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed