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Red282
207358.6
441491.9
1690104.5
Blue258
680082.5
293080.5
205476.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions272251200300350282258

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+24Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
14Coral scored#11
68Coral points54
68Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +10
36Coral scored#35
130Coral points126
4Processor algae#3
6Net algae#6
24Processor points18
24Net points24
48Algae points42
178Total teleop168
Reef
16L4#19
20L3#9
7L2#9
7L1 · trough#9
60Game pieces#55
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
282Total score258

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
104.50.6
103.9104.5
Auto31.3
Teleop62.1
End11.1
red by 22.1
82.50.4
82.082.5
Auto22.5
Teleop48.5
End11.4
Second
91.90.6
91.391.9
Auto19.0
Teleop65.3
End7.6
red by 11.4
80.50.4
80.180.5
Auto18.5
Teleop51.5
End10.5
Third
2073
#57
58.60.6
57.958.6
Auto11.7
Teleop38.4
End8.5
blue by 18.1
2054
#50
76.60.4
76.276.6
Auto23.4
Teleop44.5
End8.8