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Red175
463575.4
570514.6
373954.7
Blue161
439850.3
602427.9
54856.3
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15113880100120160180200220175161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+2Teleop
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave6
3Coral scored#6
14Coral points31
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +16
23Coral scored#19
82Coral points70
5Processor algae#5
6Net algae#5
30Processor points30
24Net points20
54Algae points50
136Total teleop120
Reef
11L4#8
8L3#8
3L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#35
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
175Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4635
#14
75.41.8
70.772.5
Auto17.0
Teleop48.1
End10.3
red by 19.1
548
#58
56.31.3
51.152.4
Auto7.0
Teleop44.2
End5.1
Second
3739
#33
54.71.8
48.550.3
Auto8.1
Teleop42.9
End3.7
red by 4.4
4398
#54
50.31.3
47.949.2
Auto8.4
Teleop39.9
End2.1
Third
5705
#72
14.61.8
13.715.4
Auto1.7
Teleop11.5
End1.4
blue by 13.3
6024
#52
27.91.3
24.225.5
Auto4.2
Teleop22.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed