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Red190
271467.4
36571.4
54856.3
Blue260
58180.7
207358.6
205476.6
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204227100150250300350190260

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+50
Endgame+70
Fouls+70
AutonomousBlue +18
9Leave6
6Coral scored#10
28Coral points49
37Total auto55
TeleoperatedBlue +32
26Coral scored#33
95Coral points117
4Processor algae#5
7Net algae#8
24Processor points30
28Net points32
52Algae points62
147Total teleop179
Reef
10L4#19
9L3#10
6L2#8
7L1 · trough#6
43Game pieces#56
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +70
0Foul points0
190Total score260

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#40
71.41.3
71.269.9
Auto14.5
Teleop49.0
End7.8
blue by 9.3
581
#23
80.72.4
78.681.1
Auto18.9
Teleop53.1
End8.7
Second
67.41.3
65.063.7
Auto13.3
Teleop47.4
End6.7
blue by 9.3
2054
#50
76.62.4
73.475.8
Auto23.4
Teleop44.5
End8.8
Third
548
#58
56.31.3
52.451.2
Auto7.0
Teleop44.2
End5.1
blue by 2.3
2073
#57
58.62.4
52.955.3
Auto11.7
Teleop38.4
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
79%Coral oddsEarned83%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsMissed95%Barge oddsEarned